After a cherry tree is planted, it can take some seven years before it produces anything. If all goes according to plan, the tree can live another 30 or so years.
Growing crops like cherries requires long-term investment, in the hope of future returns. But with climate change and more unpredictable seasons, some farmers aren’t sure what to expect anymore.
Juliette King McAvoy is a project manager at King Orchards. She said crop losses aren’t new in the farming world, but they’re becoming more frequent and extreme.
“I don't know what the climate is gonna look like in 10, 20, 40 years," McAvoy said. "We cannot just pick and change varieties or replant.”
On a tour of her orchard, McAvoy pointed out some of the changes her farm’s been forced to make, in order to adapt for climate-driven challenges.
After experiencing a severe crop loss due to a late spring frost in 2013, her farm got five frost fans. On a cold night, the fans will push rising warm air back down to the ground and protect the trees.
“In the spring, the trees will start to come out of dormancy," McAvoy said. "Depending on their stage, the farther they come out of dormancy, the more vulnerable they are to frost events and cold weather.”
McAvoy said the fans are surprisingly effective, but they can only do so much. King Orchards still had crop losses in the previous two years, even with the fans chugging away.
Late spring frosts are only one symptom of climate change. McAvoy said she’s seen more long periods of drought followed by severe downpours.
A warmer and more humid climate also increases the threat of pests, so McAvoy’s farm has needed to apply more fungicide.
“It’s a moving target all the time," McAvoy said. "It feels like we don’t have great options in that we’re always weighing the negative outcomes.”
Nikki Rothwell is a fruit specialist with the MSU Extension Service. She said fruit growers are very aware of the changing climate and how it affects their crops.
Rothwell said most fruits in Michigan are vulnerable, but tart cherries are at the top of the list.
“I have so much empathy for growers with climate change," she said. "Sometimes that makes me feel a little helpless. There's nothing that I can do to help and sometimes there's nothing that growers can do to prevent that random hailstorm or freeze event.”
The “lake effect” is what makes growing fruit possible on the 45th parallel. Lake Michigan helps moderate the highest temperatures in the summer and coldest temperatures in the winter, and that extends the growing season.
In the face of climate change, Lake Michigan may help keep things more moderate overall, but the seasons will likely be more volatile.
Back on Juliette King McAvoy’s orchard, she said this year’s harvest was good, but she’s not sure what next year will look like.
“If you like cherries, you should be concerned," McAvoy said. "If you like fruit, you should be concerned because we don't really know how quickly all this is going to change.”
McAvoy said the relationship between farmers and climate change is complicated. The agricultural sector is a large emitter of fossil fuels, but she says farmers are also impacted by climate change.
“From my perspective as a fruit grower, I'm affected by climate change, but I also think that agriculture can be perhaps part of the solution,” she said.
Michigan is the nation’s leading producer of tart cherries and growers are doing what they can to keep the industry afloat. But McAvoy said it’s going to take more than her farm’s frost fans and solar panels to address this global issue.
