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The new polling from NPR says Americans are largely unhappy with how things are going in the country. President Trump gets bad marks, as does his Republican Party, but so do Democrats. NPR senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro talked about all of this with NPR Politics Podcast co-host Miles Parks.
MILES PARKS, BYLINE: Domenico, what do you see in this new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll?
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Well, it was a pretty eye-opening poll, I thought, this week. Democrats are up 14 points in what's known as the congressional ballot test. We ask routinely, you know, if elections were held today, who would you vote for in your district, a Republican or a Democrat? Fifty-five percent in this poll said a Democrat, 41% said a Republican. In Marist polls, that's the biggest lead that we've seen since 2017, since Trump's first administration.
And I have to say, in 20 years of covering politics, I can't remember seeing a good survey put out a congressional ballot where one party is at 55 in the congressional ballot. Look, this could be an outlier, but there's plenty of evidence that it's not, especially with the elections earlier this month where, you know, Democrats did well up and down the ballot, and voters seem to be upset with Trump and Republicans, especially on the issue of affordability.
PARKS: Fourteen points is a lot of points. It sounds like the makings of a blowout, but we are still a year away from midterms.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Sure, we're still a year away, but I do think that if Democrats can maintain a lead of anywhere from - oh, I don't know - 8 to 11 points advantage in the generic ballot, that's setting them up for a very good midterm. So things have changed, and the predictive power of these polls and the generic ballot question has really dropped. Why? - because there are so fewer truly competitive seats. We have more Democrats sitting in seats that Trump won than Republicans sitting in seats that Harris won. And also Republicans have an advantage not even counting the midcycle gerrymandering that's going on in states like Texas and California.
MONTANARO: Yeah, I was going to say, the gerrymandering has really led to a right-leaning number of seats in the country that are, you know, seemingly a majority. And that's why Democrats need to have a bigger advantage on this question.
PARKS: Well, thinking ahead to how Republicans respond to all of this, the first thing that they did after this government shutdown, Domenico, was to vote to force President Trump's Department of Justice to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Where does the party stand or how are they thinking about moving forward over the next year?
MONTANARO: Yeah, I mean, I think it'd be too far to say that the party's fracturing and people are breaking away from Trump. But it's certainly easier to do that when a president has low approval ratings, as Trump does. I mean, our poll had him at 39% job approval, the lowest since just after January 6. You know, it was 24% with independents. He's on the wrong side of a lot of issues - the economy, people thinking he's going too far on how the administration is conducting deportations.
But I have to say, you know, I'm skeptical that there will be that much change where we see Republicans suddenly abandoning the president because he's still very popular with base Republican voters. In our survey, 9 in 10 Republicans still approve of the job he's doing.
LIASSON: And what's - just a little caveat about the unpopularity of Democrats - they are unpopular, historically unpopular, but a lot of the people who say they are not happy with Democrats are Democratic voters. They're not happy with Democrats. Does that mean they're going to vote for Republicans? No. Are they going to stay home? Probably not 'cause these voters are very, very angry, and we saw in the off years that they are motivated. Whether Trump is on the ballot or not, they are motivated.
PARKS: I mean, the thing I struggle with, Domenico, is just trying to figure out what matters right now because it does feel like there's a new political controversy, scandal, something big happening every single day. And I get the sense that that advantages Trump, that nothing ever really seems to stick.
MONTANARO: Well, yeah. I mean, Trump is chaos. You know, that's always been his strategy. That's been his playbook. You know, he puts out a fire hose of stuff, you know, controversial things online, as we saw even this week. I think the difference here is that Trump and Republicans, like Democrats and President Biden before him, can't escape the fact that people are feeling a pinch in their pockets. You know, it's arguably one of - you know, the reason why he won crossover voters in the 2024 presidential election.
Still, the main issue in our poll - 57% said that lowering prices needs to be Trump's top priority. Immigration was a distant second at 16%, despite the fact that Trump continues to say, or has said repeatedly in the second term, that immigration is really the most important issue. But even a plurality of Republicans were saying that lowering prices is the top priority, so they are screaming it out in the surveys and at the ballot box.
LIASSON: The economy and particularly prices is a different kind of issue. It's easy to change the subject from a lot of issues but not when people feel they are being pinched and prices are going up for their basic goods like food and rent and education.
And it's very hard to convince people that the economy is better than they feel. And if presidents try - Biden tried, Trump is trying now - try to convince them that something is different than than they're feeling, they are insulted.
PARKS: Well, I do feel like a lot can change in a year, specifically - and maybe most importantly, it sounds like - on the economy. How much can we really learn from a poll like this, Domenico, this far out from midterms?
MONTANARO: Yeah, I mean, I think it offers a lot of value. I mean, it offers a good framework for where we are right now, you know, what the mood of the country is, what the reporting lines, frankly, will be heading into the next year. What is it that voters care most about? We know what people think is most important. We see this as really a critical juncture of Trump's presidency because he's inching closer to that lame duck status and certainly would be if Democrats take back the House next year.
But Democrats have to worry about peaking too soon. They're not taking Republicans by surprise on the issue of affordability. There are some real warning signs for Democrats in this survey as well. As Mara said, Democrats don't really like the people in their own party. And the bottom line here is, if prices stay what they are, it's advantage, Democrats. But if they come down and people feel improvements, then this lead very much could recede.
LIASSON: Right. That means Trump has to deliver. He can't just convince people the economy is better than they think it is. He has to actually bring prices down.
SUMMERS: You can find more on the political news of the day on the NPR Politics Podcast. It's on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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