LEILA FADEL, HOST:
California's approval of Proposition 50 let the state's Democratic leadership temporarily replace their congressional map to make it easier for Democrats to win five new House seats next year. It was a response to Texas Republicans redrawing their map to give them a similar edge. Joining us to discuss the redistricting race that's going on is Amy Walter. She's publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, which is a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes American political trends. Amy, thanks for being here.
AMY WALTER: Hi. Thanks for having me.
FADEL: OK. I think the big question is, OK, Texas did it. California did it. So what does...
WALTER: Right.
FADEL: ...This mean for other redistricting efforts across the U.S.? Does this keep them going, or does it stop them?
WALTER: Yeah. That's an excellent question. And I think in some ways, we've seen a little bit of both.
FADEL: OK.
WALTER: Just the other day in Kansas, a state that was getting a lot of pressure from national Republicans to redraw - there's only one Democratic seat in Kansas - to redraw that seat, Republican legislators there said, I don't think so. Now, to be fair, some of that hesitation was coming before the Prop 50 final vote. However, Virginia, a state that is held by Democrats, pushing forward on putting a similar sort of proposition in front of voters in that state...
FADEL: Yeah.
WALTER: ...Coming in 2026. To me, Leila, what stood out the most about the Proposition 50 experience and what it tells us about re-redistricting going forward was in the exit polls. The exit polls in California asked, do you think that redistricting - we should do it in response to other states? Sixty-four percent said, no, we really shouldn't do that.
FADEL: Oh, wow.
WALTER: They still voted for it. But here the - here's the one that really struck out to me...
FADEL: That's fascinating.
WALTER: ...Stuck out to me. Do you think congressional districts should be drawn by the party in power or a nonpartisan commission? Ninety-two percent of California voters said, we think that congressional districts should be drawn by the party in - I'm sorry - by a nonpartisan commission, which is currently the law in California. Ninety-two percent said, we'd like that to stay, and yet 63% of them voted...
FADEL: To get rid of it.
WALTER: ...To overturn it. Yeah.
FADEL: So in this moment, when there is this sort of redistricting plan that will impact the midterms, the voters seem to know they don't want this but are...
WALTER: Yep.
FADEL: ...Still in the battle. So where does it go from here? I mean, is this a Pandora's box that's been opened by Trump's push for a mid-decade partisan redistricting here?
WALTER: It sure feels that way today, and I think we don't know until we see the results of the 2026 election. If Republicans are successful at holding the House, thanks to, in part, shoring up their majority with these new district lines, it may give other - you know, it may give future Congresses or future legislators the sense that, well, maybe this is something we should be thinking about every two years. If it's not successful - and I would argue that at the end of the day, the political environment is going to tell us a lot more about who controls Congress than how many lines get drawn in this redistricting battle. So if it's not successful in staving off Democratic success in 2026, and if there are negative consequences - right? - where seats that were supposed to flip one way end up going the other or incumbents who were drawn into different districts end up losing, say, their primaries, there may be more resistance going forward...
FADEL: But...
WALTER: ...On doing this again.
FADEL: But what if it is successful? I mean, if one party...
WALTER: Right.
FADEL: ...Is able to say...
WALTER: Right.
FADEL: ...To create redistricting so another party really can never come back into majority, what does that mean for a two-party system democracy?
WALTER: Yeah. It means that we are stuck in something of a doom loop and that the two parties just are looking constantly for any bit of an opportunity, any bit of an edge to get into power. And look, our politics right now is basically calcified. And so the shifts that it takes for one party to gain control or to lose control are on the margins. Just a handful of seats, a handful of states, hundred thousand votes or so can determine whether you get to be in power or not.
FADEL: Right.
WALTER: And so I think that pressure is going to remain for the near future and maybe the foreseeable future.
FADEL: Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report. Thank you for your time and your insights.
WALTER: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
