Updated December 3, 2025 at 5:02 AM EST
A Democratic overperformance in a Republican-won special congressional election in Tennessee Tuesday sets the stage for a 2026 midterm election where affordability remains a top issue.
Republican Matt Van Epps won Tennessee's 7th Congressional District by 9 percentage points over Democratic State Rep. Aftyn Behn after millions of dollars in outside spending drove up turnout and attention on the contest in its final weeks.
President Trump won the district with roughly 60% of the vote last November. Former Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July, won by a similar margin.
Tuesday's results saw Democrats gain ground in deep blue areas that saw lower turnout last year and, paired with last month's sweeping victories in races across the country, suggest the rightward drift of young people and nonwhite voters in 2024 has snapped back towards Democrats.
Republicans were able to motivate their base to show up and vote without Trump on the ballot and with a campaign that did not focus on his policies or grapple with his unpopularity.
Van Epps' victory means Republicans will grow to a 220-213 advantage over Democrats until Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's planned resignation on Jan. 5, 2026.
"Running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win," Van Epps said in a statement Tuesday night. "Our victory was powered by a movement of Tennesseans that are ready for change. We are grateful to the President for his unwavering support that charted this movement and catapulted us to victory. President Trump was all-in with us. That made the difference. In Congress, I'll be all-in with him."
Trump posted a congratulatory message on his Truth Social website earlier in the evening.
"Congratulations to Matt Van Epps on his BIG Congressional WIN in the Great State of Tennessee," Trump stated on Truth Social. "The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another great night for the Republican Party!!!"
But the closer-than-expected contest that also prompted heavy investment in money and manpower from Republicans has Democrats declaring their own sort of victory heading into the 2026 midterm cycle.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement that Behn "blew away expectations" and touted the party's string of overperformances in 2025 after losing the White House and Senate last year.
"What happened tonight in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes," Martin said. "Aftyn Behn's overperformance in this Trump +22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms."
In nearly 60 state legislative and Congressional special elections, Democrats have improved on their 2024 margins by an average of 13% and are coming off a string of high-profile victories in races up and down the ballot last month.
In Tennessee, Behn earning roughly 45% of the vote is a similar 13% shift in margins from how the district voted last November.
In final stretch, outside money floods race
According to the latest Federal Election Commission data, outside groups spent more than $6.5 million on the race, including more than $1.6 million from the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC. Two-thirds of the total super PAC spending came in the last two weeks of the race as early voting picked up in earnest.
Scant public polling of a typically lower-turnout special election coupled with a less reliable sense of who will make up the electorate has also added pressure on both parties to squeeze out every vote in what was considered a possibly tight race.
An Emerson College poll released last week found Van Epps slightly ahead of Behn but within the margin of error among voters surveyed. Surveys released in October from Democratic-aligned firms showed Van Epps with an 8-point advantage, roughly in line with the average Democratic special election overperformance this year.
Campaigns focus on cost of living
The closing sprint of the race saw a slew of surrogates make campaign stops and virtual appearances to support the candidates. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Martin the DNC chairman attended canvassing events for Behn last month, while former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez headlined a Zoom rally Monday evening.
House Speaker Mike Johnson held a get-out-the-vote rally Monday morning for Van Epps that featured Trump calling on speakerphone to proclaim that the "whole world is watching Tennessee right now."
Both parties made affordability a top issue in the race, especially on the airways. Van Epps embraced Trump's endorsement and also focused his closing message on the economy.
In one ad, Van Epps decried "career politicians" and promised to "bring down prices, create good paying jobs, and lower health care costs for working families."
Behn's closing ad promised that she would "shake up Washington" by "making health care more affordable, bringing down the cost of living, and protect workers and small businesses from job-killing tariffs."
During a Monday evening telephone rally for Van Epps, Trump dismissed affordability as something Democrats mentioned to distract from what he said are his administration's numerous accomplishments.
"They like to talk about affordability," Trump said in the Monday evening tele-rally for Van Epps. "To them it's just a con job, it's just a word."
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