A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
More than 2,000 men have run a mile in under four minutes, but in competitive sport, a woman has never been recorded doing it. Now, that could change this week in Paris, where Kenyan runner Faith Kipyegon is expected to try. She already holds the women's mile record at just over 4 minutes and 7 seconds, and now a group of scientists says that she could be even faster. One of those scientists is Rodger Kram. He's a professor of integrative physiology at the University of Colorado Boulder. His team modeled what it would take to finally push past that mark, which, ironically, is roughly the same amount of time we have for this entire segment. So, Professor, what needs to happen for her to actually break the four-minute barrier?
RODGER KRAM: Well, I think the most important thing is they need to reduce her air resistance by having pacers, or as we call them, drafters, in front of her, pushing the air out of the way. It's - that might be surprising because at speeds that most of us run, we don't really feel the air unless there's wind. But at 15 miles an hour, which is what she's trying to run, it's substantial.
MARTÍNEZ: And how many pacers would have to be in front of her or around her to actually make a difference in terms of wind resistance?
KRAM: Well, just one would make a difference. We - in our model in the paper we published in February, we used two. We had one woman in front and one woman behind her, and we calculated that that - she could probably do it with just two pacers. But my understanding is that Nike's going to have many more, a mixture of men who are accomplished four-minute milers already, and two women who were, I believe, finalists in the Olympics last year. It's - they're going to - probably the women aren't - the other women aren't going to last the whole mile. Inevitably, they aren't. And that's - that points out just how great Faith Kipyegon is because there are very few women who can run half a mile at a four-minute mile pace. She's going to try and do the whole mile.
MARTÍNEZ: Right. Really quick. I mean, in this case, do you think that the way it's going to be set up with the pacers in front of her and her drafting behind them, that she can make up the eight seconds she needs to break a four-minute mile?
KRAM: Yes, our calculations show that she can, and they're based on experiments and, you know, sure, some assumptions, but I think it's quite reasonable. My biggest worry today is the wind. I don't know how the forecast has changed overnight, but last I saw, the wind was supposed to be about 10 miles an hour in Paris.
MARTÍNEZ: And that might be too much for even the pacers to be able to break for her?
KRAM: Yes, and it could, you know, it could be a crosswind across her, and that still reduces - or increases the energy it requires to run. So that's my biggest concern at this point.
MARTÍNEZ: Would she be able to try again later in the day, or would be - or would one attempt be too much?
KRAM: Oh, it depends when in the race something - you know, whether they could call it off if she was off pace at a half mile. But I think they could also postpone till Friday or Saturday. Weather looks better on Friday. If I was in charge, that's what I would do. But there's another element to it, and that's the audience being built up in excitement.
MARTÍNEZ: I know. I can't wait. I'm looking forward to seeing her give it a try. That's Professor Rodger Kram at the University of Colorado Boulder. Thank you very much for your time.
KRAM: All right.
(SOUNDBITE OF SONG, "RUNNIN'")
PHARRELL WILLIAMS: (Singing) When I'm runnin', I don't want no free ride. I'm just sick and tired of running. Some nights I cry 'cause I can see the day comin'. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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