Editor's note: This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity and length.
Tina Sawyer: So, the past few weeks have been a whirlwind for U.S.-Canada relations, punctuated by the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Donald Trump taking the White House.
WCMU’s AJ Jones chatted with News Director Rick Brewer about Canada's upcoming election, and how a potential trade war between the U.S. and Canada could impact Michigan.
Rick Brewer: So AJ, Prime Minister Trudeau is stepping down, why exactly is he resigning?
AJ Jones: He had become increasingly unpopular amongst Canadians because of increases in the cost of living that hit hard after the pandemic. Canada's been dealing with a housing crisis in addition. Multiple members of the left-of-center Liberal Party came out against him over the past few months. I had a conversation with University of Ottawa Polisci professor Charles Etienne Beaudry. He told me that when a Prime Minister loses support of their party. Usually the kiss of death.
RB: So, what happens next when it comes to who is going to become the next Prime Minister? What is the parliamentary process?
AJ: So, Canada's legislative body, the Parliament, has been suspended until March 24th to give time for the Liberal Party to pick another leader. That race is already up and running and is set to end on March the 9th. That leader, whoever they will be, will face an election in the coming weeks after that race. We don't know when exactly the general election will start, Beaudry said the Liberals, in his mind, would likely call an election in early March after the leadership race.
RB: Let's bring this a little bit closer to home now. How exactly does the Prime Minister of Canada impact people directly here in Michigan?
AJ: So, as you know, President Trump has threatened to levy a very aggressive series of tariffs on Canadian imports, and Canadian imports are quite important to the auto industry here. Obviously, the Detroit three, they have factories that produce parts for cars made in Michigan. The Detroit 3 themselves have plants here in the listening area. America is the largest buyer of Canadian propane. For listeners up north, they might rely on that propane to help keep things warm. Some politicians, like Ottawa Premier Doug Ford, have also threatened retaliatory economic actions. Ford, in particular, said that he would cut off beer sales, in addition to energy that flows through Ontario.
RB: So how much power does a Prime Minister exactly have when it comes to dealing with? Day-to-day, trade policies between the US and Canada?
AJ: Prime Minister has a lot of power and can make very, almost unilateral decisions if their party happens to control the parliament outright. Justin Trudeau, for the past three years, has not had that power, he's governing in what is called a coalition government. But the next leader of Canada, assuming their party controls parliament with a large majority, likely will be able to get done whatever agenda they want. The Canadian Prime Minister, if they go into government with a large majority, will have a lot of power to be able to dictate what course is taken.
RB: Do we know who's going to succeed Trudeau?
AJ: As all the polls say, the long-term successor and election winner, regardless of who wins the Liberal election race, will be Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre is a veteran politician; he's a fairly brash figure. Professor Beaudry told me that, despite the sort of bravado, Poilievre maintains a very Canadian style and his campaign is really focused on reaching out to the middle class. As for tariffs, the professor told me that Poilievre has kept his cards kind of close to his chest, waiting until he wins. Which he, if you're willing to buy the polling, will win almost certainly by a very wide margin.
RB: So, speaking of tariffs, AJ, how exactly have Canadians been preparing?
AJ: Professor Beaudry told me there's really a couple schools of thought. The first is diversification. So, if Canada loses access to free trade with the United States, Canada will just sell goods to other countries. Doing this will help Canadians maintain some of their manufacturing base. It'll also help decrease their heavy reliance on the United States. The other strategy would be pursuing a common market with the US. So, think more economic integration and cooperation, and a friendlier border. He told me Poilievre Could potentially go through (with) a strategy like this, and he said that doing this would probably have great benefit to Canadians and Americans.
Prof. Charles Etienne Beaudry: Anybody in Canada can work in any business in the US, and vice versa. No administrative red tape.
AJ: You know, we've talked about retaliation. Doug Ford's been…very publicly saying that he would be interested in retaliatory actions. He wore a “Canada is Not for Sale” hat at a meeting last week. But as far as retaliation being a long-term strategy, Canada relies quite a bit on the American economy, and a long-term trade war would probably not be terribly helpful to Canadians.
RB: AJ, Thank you for your reporting on this.
AJ: Appreciate it. No worries.
