First off. Deep breaths. (Really, you should try it! We’re doing it now and it feels great!)
Here’s the thing: with four days to go we simply do not know what is going to happen next week. Moreover, no one knows what’s going to happen next week (not even those who say they do). So, in the final It’s Just Politics newsletter before Election Day, we’re going to take a look at what we do know and what you political junkies can watch for come Tuesday and beyond:
Voter turnout: History suggests that Democrats will need at least 50 percent of their base voters to turn out to win the statewide presidential and U.S. Senate races. Republicans are hoping to pick up a larger-than-typical share of Black male voters this year and get out so-called “low-propensity” voters. Republicans (all the way up to former President Donald Trump) are also urging GOP voters to shed their skepticism and take advantage of early voting options. A big question about that: Will early voting help turn out more Republican voters? Or, as Democrats are suggesting, will it be more or less the same number of Republicans simply casting their ballots – just sooner? Democrats, meantime, continue their get-out-the-vote efforts in Democratic strongholds throughout the state (Detroit, Ann Arbor, East Lansing, Kalamazoo) and are hoping that moderate-to-right-leaning suburban female voters turn out and turn against Trump and down-ballot Republicans. Former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney has been spending a lot of time in Michigan over the past few weeks with that mission in mind.
U.S. Senate: Those same voter participation questions will undoubtedly play a role in the razor-thin Senate race between Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. The race has taken on national importance as it will help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate next year. It’s continued to remain too close for either campaign to safely consider in the bag but we’re really interested in whether we might see some split-ticket voting. For example, might disaffected Republicans who have voted in the past for Trump choose to vote this time around for Harris and for Rogers? We know Michigan voters have an independent streak and this is one race where that could shine.
U.S. House: The fact that Slotkin is running for the Senate means there’s an open seat in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District (centered around Lansing and includes counties like Ingham, Livingston, Shiawassee and Clinton plus parts of Oakland, Genesee and Oakland). It was considered a close race when Slotkin ran two years ago and it’s an even closer race now that there isn’t an incumbent. We’ll see whether former Republican state Senator Tom Barrett (who lost to Slotkin by 20,000 votes in 2022) is able to flip the toss-up district red. His opponent is former Democratic state Senator and former Whitmer administration official Curtis Hertel. The Hertel name has a long history in Michigan politics. His father was a Michigan House Speaker, an uncle was a legislator and and an uncle served in Congress. But that was a long time ago and the younger Hertel is from a different part of the state than the family’s roots in Wayne and Macomb counties.
Another race we’re watching in Michigan that will help to decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives is the open 8th Congressional District (anchored in the cities of Flint, Saginaw, Midland and Bay City including all of Bay and Saginaw counties and a lot of Genesee County). With the retirement of longtime Democratic Congressman Dan Kildee, the district’s voters have seen millions and millions of dollars pouring into the campaigns of Democratic state Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican businessman Paul Junge. This is Junge’s third time running for Congress and it’s clear to Zoe (after moderating a debate between the two candidates last week) that voter enthusiasm on both sides is intense.
Again, and we cannot stress this enough: these House and Senate swing seats will help determine whether the winner of the presidential race will find Congress an adversary or an ally in the new term.
Michigan Supreme Court: These state Supreme Court races are among the quirkiest on the statewide ballot. The nominees were selected at Democratic and Republican state conventions, but you won’t be able to tell on the ballot because they will still appear on the non-partisan portion. That also means voters who use the straight-party ticket option won’t be taking part in the Supreme Court elections unless they go down to the non-partisan portion of the ballot.
Two seats are up this year. The Republican nominees are state Representative Andrew Fink and Judge Patrick William O’Grady. Justice Kyra Harris Bolden is a Democrat and former legislator seeking to complete her term on the court after being appointed by Governor Gretchen Whitmer to fill a vacancy. Professor Kimberly Ann Thomas, the other Democratic nominee, has been endorsed by Chief Justice Elizabeth Clement, a Republican-nominated justice who was initially named to the court by then Governor Rick Snyder. We talked about how that shocked a lot of Lansing folks in last week’s newsletter.
Saginaw County: We know Michigan is a swing-state but within Michigan there are also swing counties. For more than 30 years, since 1992, the presidential candidate who’s won Saginaw County has won the state. And since 2008, the presidential candidate who won Saginaw County won the presidency. So, we’ve been thinking a lot about what we can take away from this bellwether in the current election cycle. Today on Stateside, Zoe speaks with a political science professor from Saginaw Valley State University about what he’s seeing in the county. Take a listen today at 3 p.m. during Stateside on Michigan Public.
Mis- and disinformation: Okay. So we said we don’t know what is going to happen. Well, that’s true about the results of the election. But we do know one incredibly unfortunate thing will happen: the rampant spread of misinformation and disinformation. We’d love to be able to say we have a magic wand to fix it. We don’t. But we’re also not powerless. Check out this Brennan Center for Justice page on Election 2024. The Center is an “independent, nonpartisan law and policy organization that works to reform, revitalize, and when necessary, defending our country’s systems of democracy and justice.” Take a look, take a breath, and remember that there are smart, strong folks whose belief in a safe and orderly election process transcends party politics. They’re working hard for you.
Dig deeper: Maybe you weren’t planning on voting but you read all this and you’ve changed your mind? Amazing!! There is still plenty of time not just to vote… but to also register if you haven’t already! Find all the details here.
Want to let us know how you’re feeling about Election 2024? Or, just want to let us know what you want more of (less of?) in the newsletter? We always want to hear from you! Shoot us an email at politics@michiganpublic.org!
What we’re talking about at the dinner table:
Early voting: Lots of folks, including us, are trying to understand just what to make of the early voting numbers we’re seeing in Michigan. With the start of no-reason absentee voting a couple years ago and early in-person voting beginning just this year, we can make some educated guesses to try and make sense of the numbers (as of this morning more than 2.5 million Michigan voters have already voted) but it will take weeks to truly understand the dynamics of early voting. Are these early votes a sign of high turnout or are these folks who are coming out early people who would have voted anyway?
State House: With so much attention being paid to the top-of-the-ticket races, we’re still keeping a very close eye on the state House. After shocking many politicos two years ago with a complete Democratic takeover of state government for the first time in forty years (the state House, state Senate and the reelection of Governor Whitmer), Rick took a look this week at what’s at stake in control of the state House. It’s not just whether or not Michigan will see divided government again, but how the last two years of Whitmer’s agenda - and her legacy - will fare.
Being kind: We’re ending this week with a small request. Look, we know some folks are excited. Some folks are anxious. Some are really scared. And most are ready for it all to be over. We’re just taking a moment to remember that, in the end, no matter what happens next week (and in the months to come) we’re all going to have to find a way to live with each other and, hopefully, treat each other how we all want to be treated. If you have the brainspace and the mentality to be kind to someone (maybe even a stranger) over the next few weeks we (okay, this is really Zoe talking here… Rick doesn’t usually get this Pollyannaish) think it might just make a difference in creating the state and the country we all want. We don’t have to agree all the time, but we do have to live with each other. So, please try and spread some kindness into the world. (Ok, Zoe’s stepping off her soapbox now.)
_________________________
IJP On The Road:
You can join both Zoe and Rick on Election Night! Zoe and April Baer will be anchoring Michigan Public’s live election-night coverage beginning on-air and online at 7 p.m. and Rick will be in the field covering the Democratic statewide candidates throughout Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Capitol reporter Colin Jackson will be with the Republican statewide candidates and you can hear all of their coverage the next morning (and for the days to come) on Morning Edition, It’s Just Politics, Stateside and All Things Considered.
_______________________
Yours in political nerdiness,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
________________________
Want to get political updates from Zoe and Rick straight to your inbox? Sign up for the It's Just Politics newsletter!
