Democrats have a two-seat majority in the state House — a majority which gives them control of all three branches of government in Lansing.
But a few state House races are extremely tight, including the race for the 103rd District in northern Michigan.
Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City) flipped this seat in 2022, becoming the first Democrat in over a century to represent the Traverse City area in the state House.
But that seat is vulnerable, maybe even more now than before. So Coffia is out campaigning.
“It feels like a big responsibility to make sure that we hold this seat and are able to continue the progress that we've been able to make so far,” Coffia said while knocking doors in a subdivision outside Traverse City.
But it’s likely to be a close race between Coffia and her Republican challenger Lisa Trombley.
A narrow win in '22
Two years ago, Coffia won by fewer than 800 votes. It was the second-closest state House race in Michigan. (The closest was Democrat Jaime Churches’ win in the 27th District — the Downriver suburbs of Detroit. She won by a little over 600 votes.)
“I'm cautiously optimistic. This is a swing seat,” Coffia said. “I feel like as long as we do our job, we're in a good position to hold the seat. But I don't believe in taking anything for granted. So hence, we're out here knocking, and we've knocked over 30,000 doors.”
And Coffia’s campaign has raised and spent a lot of money, too.
“Betsy Coffia has set an unbelievable record this year in fundraising,” said Bill Ballenger, a Michigan political pundit and publisher of The Ballenger Report. “She has raised and spent, and is spending, more money than any Democratic candidate in the entire state out of 110 districts.”
Ballenger says it could be a key factor in determining who wins the race for the 103rd.
“She's dwarfing Lisa Trombley in spending,” Ballenger said. “And the question is: Is that going to be enough to pull her across the finish line?”
That won’t be clear until after Election Day.
What's different in '24?
Coffia’s 2022 win was historic for Democrats. But she had a few advantages.
One, redistricting and shifting demographics likely helped.
And two, Ballenger said, Gretchen Whitmer, Dana Nessel and Jocelyn Benson all led and won the top of the ticket by big margins.
But Ballenger said the top of the ticket this year is different: An extra tight presidential race could trickle down the ballot.
“The question is: Does Traverse City revert to form and go back to electing a Republican when the race at the top of the ticket in the Traverse City area is going to be much closer than it was two years ago?” Ballenger said.
Local Republicans like Katie Kniss are counting on a close race between Coffia and Trombley.
“The polling shows that they're neck and neck right now,” said Kniss, who is chair of the Grand Traverse County Republican Party.
Kniss ran against Lisa Trombley in the primary, and is now throwing her support behind Trombley.
Trombley did not respond to IPR's multiple requests for comment on this story.
Kniss says there’s a lot at stake for Republicans statewide if they can’t win back at least two seats in the state House, which is why this seat is crucial.
“The intention, obviously, is to stop the hemorrhaging that's happening with all these liberal policies,” Kniss said. “Because, of course, the Democrats will still control the governor's seat, the Democrats will still control the Senate, but if Republicans take the majority in the House, we can at least stop all this stuff, because what we do know is that they are saving the best for last.”
The last two years of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s term, that is.
Kniss says she’s concerned about increased taxes, excessive government spending and the cost of living.
Plus, she’s worried about Lansing Democrats taking zoning control away from local governments, specifically when it comes to renewable energy and guns.
And Kniss criticizes Coffia for running on a moderate platform but rubber stamping liberal policies in Lansing.
Coffia says she’s been up front since the beginning, and has worked with Republicans who also represent northern Michigan.
“I think that they're going to say those things, and they do say those things about any Democrat. I am a Democrat. I'm pro-choice. I believe in climate change. I voted to protect kids the best we can with some common sense gun legislation,” Coffia said. “I'm also extremely practical and extremely focused on what is important to my district, and I think people respect that. … I didn't hide any of those things from my people, and I got elected.”
And she’s hoping the same thing will be true again this time around.
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