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Demographic trends report: Michigan lagging nationally and among peers

One of the Expedition 36 crew members aboard the Earth-orbiting International Space Station on July 11 captured this high oblique view of Lake Michigan (left) and Lake Huron and much of the state of Michigan in between.
NASA
One of the Expedition 36 crew members aboard the Earth-orbiting International Space Station on July 11 captured this high oblique view of Lake Michigan (left) and Lake Huron and much of the state of Michigan in between.

Michigan could be in for a reality check if it doesn’t take steps to reverse decades of sluggish growth.

That’s among the takeaways of a presentation delivered Friday to the Growing Michigan Together Council.

The governor assembled the body earlier this year to come up with policy recommendations for bringing in more people to Michigan.

Some of the possible solutions heard during Friday’s presentation from the consulting firm Guidehouse focused on investing in education, addressing inequality and making Michigan attractive to talent pools.

“If you work backwards from what are their needs, they’ll probably be at the time of their life where they’re starting to enter the workforce, starting to establish roots, get a house, get married, establish families. And understanding the types of communities that they want to live in, whether that’s more rural, whether that’s urban, whether that’s suburban, that will be required to understand and attract them,” Guidehouse partner Shaun Fernando said.

Other recommendations included investing in the state’s natural resources and infrastructure.

The presentation split into areas like population demographics, state finances, and comparisons with peer states. Within them, presenters highlighted various problems facing the state like Michigan’s divergence from national population growth and relative lack of sustainable revenue sources.

Guidehouse Associate Director Kristy Throndson said even bright spots like recent infrastructure spending have a drawback.

“That increased infrastructure spending in Michigan has really been propped up by temporary funding and loans,” Throndson said. “So if Michigan is going to regain and sustain competitiveness within infrastructure, more sustainable, reliable funding sources will be required.”

Without addressing some of the revenue and population woes, presenters warned, the state could see costs of government services rise with an aging population. Meanwhile, the state may not have enough money to provide the services that could attract younger demographics.

The presentation compared Michigan’s place with states like Washington, Colorado, Minnesota, Indiana, and North Carolina. Compared to those peers, Fernando said Michigan is taxed relatively lower.

“What we have seen with other states is higher taxes lead to higher outcomes. That sort of is intuitive. And the question for Michigan is … not necessarily 'Do we want to impose a higher tax burden,' but 'How do we grow the tax base that affords those outcomes,'” Fernando said.

The idea of bringing more people to the state through raising taxes has seen fierce opposition from legislative Republicans since the council’s creation.

House Minority Leader Matt Hall (R-Richland Twp) has called the commission a cover for raising taxes.

Jeremiah Ward is Hall’s spokesperson.

“You see calls for new revenues, you see calls for new programs that’ll cost money and, again, have to be paid for somehow. And so, all of that, you’re looking at tax hikes on Michiganders,” Ward said.

He said Republicans in the House, which currently rests at a temporary 54-54 split with Democrats, are vehemently opposed to tax increases.

Ward said he’d like to see lawmakers spend money more carefully in the state’s budget, accusing Democrats of wasteful spending.

“Republicans have supported investing in infrastructure, education, public safety, the things that would draw people to communities,” Ward said. “Good schools, good roads, safe neighborhoods, those are the things that we should be investing in.”

It’s still unclear how many of the recommendations from Friday’s presentation the council will take, or how lawmakers will respond to those policy suggestions.

The council is emphasizing it’s not done meeting yet and that it’s still working “diligently” on a final proposal.

Colin Jackson is a reporter for the Michigan Public Radio Network.