The race for northern Michigan’s 104th state house seat is a big deal this year. It covers Grand Traverse County. The winner could decide which party controls the Michigan legislature.
Democrats are behind Dan O’Neil who nearly won the seat last time around.
Republicans and their candidate John Roth aim to keep it in GOP hands as it has been for decades.
Because of the stakes, politicians and money from outside the district have flooded in.
On a warm day in September, Governor Gretchen Whitmer is walking through downtown Traverse City with Dan O’Neil.
Just a day earlier, the F-B-I announced they stopped a plan to kidnap the governor.
Now, she’s knocking doors for O’Neil.
“I had the team call, where I asked, does Dan still want me? They said YES!”
Dan: You can imagine that phone call…”
The governor’s come Up North several times to help O’Neil.
She says a democratic majority in the state house could expand rural broadband and fix the roads.
“But we need legislators who are going to help me make sure we realize that potential.”
O’Neil has also had big blue names like Jill Biden, Chasten Buttigieg and Debbie Stabenow at campaign events.
He says they have a role in this race.
“I don’t think a lot about whether it helps us or hurts us. What it says to our community is that we’re all in this together. That we need to work together to find solutions to the problems that we face.”
On the outskirts of Traverse City, Republican candidate John Roth walked down a suburban street.
He gets the attention of a man working in his yard.
“I’m not gonna bother you long, you’re working, it’s a Saturday..."
"I’m just recycling wood pellets… ”
They make small-talk. The man tells Roth he mostly votes Republican, but he’s not a fan of President Trump.
Roth says this comes up pretty often.
“I have nothing to do with national politics, I can’t change a darn thing at the federal level. I want to change state, and that’s it."
"Well I’ve already voted, and I think your name was on the ballot.”
The 104th seat is open because Representative Larry Inman finishes his final term this year. The two candidates to replace him are Democrat Dan O’Neil and Republican John Roth.
They have both lived in the county -- and been involved in local politics -- for decades.
Both talk up bipartisanship, but avoid labels like ‘moderate’ or ‘centrist.’
Besides that, John Roth thinks they’re very different people.
Roth has helped run a variety of seasonal businesses for decades.
“I think people really look at me as a blue-collar guy that knows how it is to struggle,”
He prioritizes deregulation and incentivizing investment Up North.
Dan O’Neil, an attorney, also says getting the state’s economy back up and running is key.
But he adds environmental issues as a top priority.
“I often say that I think that the representative from this corner of the state ought to be the leading voice in the legislature on the environment,”
He also says COVID protocols are more important than ever in the face of rising cases.
Both men say they’ve tried to keep this race focused on the issues.
But that’s been hard because a lot of outside groups are getting involved.
“In terms of broadcast ad spending this is the third most expensive race, in terms of overall campaign spending in the house, it is among the most expensive so far.”
That’s Simon Schuster with the Michigan Campaign Finance Network. He says a lot of that money is coming from outside the district.
“The DeVos family, it appears that six members of their family maxed out the individual contribution limit towards John Roth. And for the same side for Dan O’Neil, he has really benefited from a lot of institutional funders… from an organization called ‘Future Now PAC’ out of Washington D-C.”
Groups like that are behind some of those mailers and attack ads you’ve likely seen.
“What policies do some of Dan’s dangerous friends' support? A radical plan to de-fund our police force.”
O’Neil says he does NOT want to defund the police.
Representative Jason Wentworth is the Republican Speaker Pro Tem. His PAC has pumped in tens of thousands of dollars into John Roth’s campaign.
He says their role in the race is to go negative.
“And O’Neil is way more liberal than what he wants to put on in that district plain and simple. Dan’s run a campaign before, we know what he’s said and the things he’s run on. So we want to make sure the voters know that.”
But both sides are getting in on the action. Here’s another ad that’s been making the rounds.
“Meanwhile John Roth removed republican Bill Milliken from the party… but kept Inman in after indictments.”
Roth says on the contrary he asked Inman to leave and it wasn’t his idea to kick Milliken out.
People from outside the district have played a big role in this race.
Several members of the state Democratic caucus helped convince O’Neil to run. They say the 104th is needed to flip the house to their control.
The race for the 104th will cost more than a million dollars according to campaign finance disclosures.
Simon Schuster with the Michigan Campaign Finance Network says this will happen more and more.
He says dark money groups don’t just target big national races anymore.
“These organizations are trickling down and having a broader impact on politics at the state and local levels in ways that they haven’t before … and I think that the nationalisation of our politics even at the local level that we’re undergoing, is really also speaking to those trends.”
One other thing John Roth and Dan O’Neil have in common. They both support campaign finance reform.