Campaigning in one of Michigan’s most competitive congressional districts, like many other things, looks different this year. After freshman Democrat Elissa Slotkin flipped the eighth district from red to blue in 2018, Republican challenger Paul Junge is vying to take it back.
Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin has been touring her district of Ingham, Oakland, and Livingston county masked up and at social distance. At a hybrid in-person, online event at the county fair grounds outside of Mason she reminds voters of the margins she won on.“In 2016, Republicans won Mason, Aurelius, Delhi and Alledan by 1,100 votes, the Republicans vote. In 2018 we won it by 4,100 votes. That is what we call a swing people. That is a swing.”
In 2018, Slotkin flipped the reliably red eighth district from Republican to Democrat. She ran on her national security credentials and over the past two years she’s built a brand as a moderate who cares about issues that are broadly popular in the district including prescription drug prices, manufacturing, and PFAS contamination.
To get reelected she needs to thread the needle of the eight district electorate attracting deep blue democrats and split-ticket voters.
So, I always get this question, you know, ‘Is it about motivating the base, or is it about swing voters?’ And in the eighth district, it's both. I mean, quite literally, I can't win just on base voters in this district is not a democratic district. So I can't just work hard to get more people out and think that I'm going to win.
Republican political consultant John Sellek, agrees. He says Slotkin will enjoy the benefits of incumbency and more money to fund her campaign. But, even so, Sellek believes there’s a narrow path for her Republican challenger, Paul Junge, to win.
“This was constructed to be and is generally considered to still be a republican seat. It's the seat that elected Donald Trump in 2016," said Sellek. "John James a tide Debbie Stabenow in the seat last year despite the democrat wave and then that wave is what brought Elissa Slotkin just over the edge with a three-point win.”
Sellek believes this election will be a referendum on Slotkin. He says Junge's main job aside from unifying the Republican base after a divisive primary will be to remind voters that, despite her moderate image, Slotkin is indeed a Democrat.
If you listen to TV ads, Junge namechecks Nancy Pelosi, almost as often as Slotkin. Sellek says that’s a strategy.
And what she's not telling you when she's saying she's bipartisan is that she votes with the democrats and Nancy Pelosi probably 90-95% of the time, that's a legitimate thing. So let's talk about what those issues are. Can he undo nearly two years of branding that's been done for Slotkin? It'll be very difficult without a whole lot of money.
Across the eighth district in politically purple Brighton, Paul Junge, a former attorney and TV newscaster, is handing out Republican yard signs.
“Good morning," said Junge. "‘How are ya?’ I’m good, I’m running for Congress. ‘Are ya? Oh, you know what I think I voted for you!’”
Junge faces the challenge of introducing himself to voters across the eighth at a time when there aren’t many big in-person campaign events. Meaning, even the most hardcore Republicans don’t know who he is.
“So part of my pitch to the voters of the eighth district Elissa Slotkin told you, she was kind of a moderate independent minded person, but she votes very much like a much more liberal Congresswoman and so that's not what she she promised to and it's not really what you want, I don't think is a member of congress,” said Junge.
Junge is running on traditional tenets of the Republican party--pro second amendment, anti abortion rights, and fiscal conservatism.
Republicans weren’t able to recruit a household GOP name for the district since the seat will be redistricted by an independent commission in 2021. Democrat political consultant Adrian Hemond says Junge’s name-ID in the district is kneecapping the political newbie.
No one in this district knows who he is. So that's the first task for him is that he needs to find a way very quickly to come up with a whole lot of money to speak to the voters of this district, because there are hundreds of thousands of them and they don't know who he is.
The other big factor in the eighth will be the shadow of the presidential election that’s looming over all down ballot races. Sellek and Hemond agree the dynamics of the race could be swayed by the ups and downs of the presidential election.
Even if Trump wins, both agree, Slotkin could still pull off a victory. But, Hemond says if Trump loses it’s curtains for Junge.
And whether it's Paul Young, or it's john James, or it's any other Republican candidate, they can't afford to have the top of the ticket collapse. And if the Trump campaign doesn't start spending money in earnest in Michigan soon, that's what will happen.
The window of time to make their pitch to voters across the district ahead of the election is closing. With less than 50 days left and absentee ballots being sent out this week, Slotkin and Junge are making their final appeals to voters.