JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
First came the political protests and the economic pressure. Now a bitter dispute between East Asia's biggest powers, China and Japan, has moved to the cultural front. Concerts, movie screenings and youth exchanges have been canceled. And as NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports, neither side seems willing to climb down.
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MAKI OTSUKI: (Singing in Japanese).
ANTHONY KUHN, BYLINE: Japanese singer Maki Otsuki was performing in Shanghai last week when suddenly the concert hall lights went out.
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UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: Hello?
KUHN: When they came back on, two people could be seen escorting Otsuki offstage. Her management said the show was canceled due to unavoidable circumstances.
The tensions erupted last month when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in parliament that a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan could constitute an existential threat to Japan and justify a Japanese military response. Since then, China has launched a full-court press. It has sent a protest letter to the U.N. It has advised Chinese not to travel to Japan. Takaichi has since promised not to discuss any more hypothetical scenarios about Taiwan, and she suggested in parliament last week that she could have stayed out of trouble during a budget committee meeting if she had just stuck to the official script.
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SANAE TAKAICHI: (Speaking Japanese).
KUHN: "If I just kept repeating the government's previous position over and over, the budget committee session could have been suspended," she said. "But I was asked to provide specific examples, and I tried to respond faithfully." Many observers were concerned that Takaichi was moving away from a policy of ambiguity about how Japan would react to a conflict over Taiwan. The U.S. has followed a similar policy, and if the U.S. is not committed to defending Taiwan, could Japan possibly go it alone? Not likely, argues Zhou Bo, a former Chinese People's Liberation Army senior colonel.
ZHOU BO: Given the disparity of military strength between China and Japan, that is simply impossible for Japan to do that. So this time, I would say, we have an interesting situation that the tail is wagging the dog.
KUHN: In fact, Japan's laws don't allow it to use military force unless an enemy attacks it or its sole ally, the U.S. But experts note that media often leave that context out of their reports. Another way to look at it, says Tokyo University China expert Akio Takahara, is that Japan and China have had many ups and downs in their relationship. And in some ways, he says, the current downturn is not as bad as the previous ones.
AKIO TAKAHARA: This time, they are not allowing any demonstrations, and they're not allowing any boycotting of Japanese products.
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UNIDENTIFIED PROTESTER: (Chanting in Chinese).
UNIDENTIFIED PROTESTERS: (Chanting in Chinese).
KUHN: That was not the case in 2012. Japan purchased the disputed Senkaku Islands, or as China calls them, the Diaoyu Islands, which China also claims as its territory. Protesters who supported China's position took to the streets in over a hundred cities across China. Today, China's government is less tolerant of protests. President Trump, meanwhile, has said that his relations with Japan are good, but he has not backed Takaichi in the dispute. Some Japanese are worried that Trump might cut a deal with China that betrays Taiwan and Japan. Again, here's Tokyo University's Akio Takahara.
TAKAHARA: If it's a kind of a deal that sells out Taiwan or whatever, it won't be good for Japan. It won't be good for the United States. But, you know, we don't know what Trump is going to say tomorrow. So we are worried, but what can we do?
KUHN: For now, Beijing continues to insist that Prime Minister Takaichi take back her remarks, which she has refused to do. Zhou Bo says the Taiwan issue is too important for China to compromise on.
ZHOU: It involves so many things, including honor, dignity. So there's no way China will just back down. So the ball is in the court of the Japanese.
KUHN: Zhou says he thinks it's unlikely that the current dispute will be resolved anytime soon.
Anthony Kuhn, NPR News, Seoul. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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