ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
Authorities have recovered two black boxes from Wednesday's plane crash in Kazakhstan. The Azerbaijan Airlines crash killed 38 people and injured more than two dozen. The data on the black boxes could help determine what brought the plane down. Video shows punctures in the rear of the aircraft. That's raised questions about whether an explosion over Russia could have downed the jet. Shawn Pruchnicki teaches at the Center for Aviation Studies at the Ohio State University. He is not on this case but was trained in accident investigation at the National Transportation Safety Board. Welcome.
SHAWN PRUCHNICKI: Thank you. Thanks for having me.
SHAPIRO: Based on your training, what are your initial thoughts about the crash?
PRUCHNICKI: Well, I think we have a tremendous amount of information here already - you know, this early after the accident - that, in fact, this airplane was brought down by a missile.
SHAPIRO: By a missile - what makes you say that?
PRUCHNICKI: Well, first of all, the most telling evidence is - or are the holes that we have in the side of the airplane that are really only explained by shrapnel that we see as accident investigators, that when we see those patterns, that when we see those types of holes with the metal bent inward the airplane, there really is only one explanation. That is shrapnel from an explosion outside the aircraft, and that would be a missile explosion.
SHAPIRO: We know that this took place in an area where Russia has shot down Ukrainian military drones. And National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, on a call with reporters today, said some early indications would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems. At the same time, Russia's aviation authority has offered an alternative explanation, saying, maybe the plane hit a flock of birds. Based on what you've seen, does that seem plausible?
PRUCHNICKI: No. I don't think that's plausible at all. We've seen evidence of bird collision accidents. We've seen these types of accidents in the United States. And we've seen, you know, bird collisions occur in the United States on a daily basis. And they do not bring down airliners - extremely rare.
SHAPIRO: What do you expect the black boxes could reveal?
PRUCHNICKI: Well, I think there's two things that we have to remember. There are two boxes. One, the cockpit voice recorder - and it's going to be very interesting to hear what the pilots are talking about before the missile explosion and during and then after. Did they have any insight that this could have happened? Were they talking to air traffic control and told to get out of the area or something along these lines?
The other box, the flight data recorder, is going to tell us the condition of the aircraft. So we're going to understand how the airplane was flying before and the time of the explosion, what systems were failing and why the air - why the pilots lost control of the airplane. In other words, what damage occurred to the airplane from the missile that caused the loss of control leading to the crash?
SHAPIRO: You sound pretty certain. Authorities, so far, are being much more cautious in their public statements about what caused this. Why do you think that is?
PRUCHNICKI: Well, I think that the - you know, the primary reason for that is because of the political implications of this because of the nature of the war that's going on. And that's a tremendous, dangerous situation - that it's an actual missile shootdown of an airliner. So you're going to have that. And we do have to be cautious with any accident investigation, jumping to a conclusion. But we also have to be mindful that we have a tremendous amount of evidence - overwhelming evidence - that, in fact, this looks like a missile shootdown.
SHAPIRO: Shawn Pruchnicki teaches at the College of Engineering at the Ohio State University. Thank you so much for talking with us.
PRUCHNICKI: You're welcome. Thank you. Take care. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
